The Nile Not in Egypt?

While water issues in the US will quite certainly continue to heighten in severity over the next 50 years, one must take a moment to turn their attention to a very significant issue happening overseas between Ethiopia and Egypt.  "Ethiopia is Killing us," stated taxi driver Ahmed Hossam of Cairo, "If they build this dam, there will be no Nile.  If there's no Nile, then there's no Egypt."

This man is referring to the proposed project known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which would re-adjust water-sharing arrangements with Ethiopia's surrounding countries.  The current arrangements have been in place since 1959 and allocate three-fourths of the Nile waters to Egypt.  Its proposed length would be approximately 1.1 miles long, and could cost upwards of $4.7 billion dollars.  Many Ethiopians are viewing this as an immense source of national pride and a symbol of how the country has rebounded from the debilitating famines of the 1980's and 90's.

As maybe expected, this controversy has caused quite an out poor of concern from many different groups of surrounding and upstream countries.  So far there have been reports of various physical assaults, as well as other violent or provoking acts in protest.  Only time will tell how the world will react to this project, but currently, the World Bank is sticking to their decision to not fund the Renaissance Dam.  The whole deal leaves several questions, and an uncertainty for many areas and surrounding countries who will be directly affected.  With an estimated population forecast of 150 million by 2050, almost doubling Egypt's current population, these tense dynamics are assured to remain.

Egypt and Irrigated Ag

Many believe that Egypt, over the course of its long history, has developed the most stable farming-based civilization in history.  I don't know if this was meant to apply to the entire country, but I'm pretty sure it clearly applies to the agricultural activities associated with the Nile River.  And keep in mind that agriculture is also (arguably) the single most crucial development in human history.   So it's pretty clear that Egypt knows a thing or two about sustainable ag irrigation.  So what is it that they do to garner these accolades?

Their methods have been perfected over thousands of years and are still to this day dictated entirely by the flooding cycle of the Nile River. Their approach is a natural form of irrigation incorporating the three distinct water seasons of every year. The process begins each July through October when the wet season arrives and the Nile floods.  On average the river level rises 27 feet, flooding miles of farmland along the river banks under about 5 feet of water.  With accurate elevations, they would use a series of manmade ditches to channel these flood waters to basins likely to flood during the normal flood year.  All the basins were left sitting saturated for about a month, soaking up all the water they could, before being systematically drained down-gradient over the next month or so.

Then began the planting season (October) when wheat, barley, figs, melons, pomegranates, flax and other minor crops would begin to grow.  Of course the flooding not only brought water, but also mineral rich sediments that replenished the soil nutrients used by the previous crop. 

Finally the harvest season would arrive in March after about a 5-month growing season.  Hopefully the bounty of the harvest would be brought in quickly and provide all their needs for the year - as in early July the cycle would begin again.

The success of this system lay in its use of a single crop system (which tended to not deplete the soils), and replenished water and nutrients.  It also depended on the predictable 27 foot flood stage - which was usual, but never guaranteed.  If the flood stage was a bit higher or lower, there would be consequences.  Lower stages resulted in un-irrigated lands and loss of production, while higher stages affected villages, people and animals integral to the normal ag production processes.  Today the flood stages are more consistent now that the High Aswan Dam has been built and the annual floods are better controlled than before.   


With such a set-up, is it any wonder that Egypt's irrigation has remained as stable as it has throughout history?  Of course, stable also means little opportunity to grow or increase production, which can be a problem as time marches on - at least to the western mind-set.  I wonder how Kansas would manage the waters if the Nile ran through our state?  Dream on!!

Egypt has Other Problems Looming...

It's hard not to be proud of the Egyptian people for their perserverence toward freedom. But as is too often the case, other also fundamental issues are yet to be faced.

And one big one will be a new apportionment of the Nile River. It all began when a 1929 treaty regarding the River was brokered by the country’s former colonial power, Britain. It granted Egypt a veto over any water project that may alter the flow of the Nile – by any country. A 1959 pact between Egypt and Sudan later claimed 90 percent of the Nile’s flow for themselves – while the remaining eight countries in the basin were not invited or involved. They are now, and they’re wanting their fair share of the Nile River. (click on map to enlarge)

Last year Congo and Burundi spearheaded the drafting of a Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA) addressing the most contentious issues of the Nile River – equitably allocating the sustainable annual river yield; fairly considering and approving new water and energy projects on the river by all countries; and the elimination of Egypt’s claimed veto authority. The accord has already been signed by Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, and is about to be signed by Congo and Burundi. Only upstream Eritrea has not been involved in the CFA to date.

Nearly all of Egypt’s water supplies come from the Nile, so the accord has serious implications for the country and its future water projects. They have opposed the CFA process and have threatened to withdraw from the Nile Basin Initiative (a World Bank funded program to resolve disputes over the river’s water) if the seven upstream states sign the accord.

The Nile River’s average discharge is about 300 million cubic meters per day - with Ethiopia being the source of about 85 percent of this water. The CFA countries argue that Egypt must share, and, must allow the other countries to develop water projects fairly. Solutions offered within the CFA involve relocation of the Aswan Dam, more efficiency of Egypt’s current water use and elimination of a large irrigation project for Egypt’s Tushka Desert – all saving enough water to provide the rest of the basin countries access to water they need without reducing what Egypt and Sudan are currently using.  I wish the Egyptian people also the strength and foresight to tackle their water problems as well.