Stretching the Colorado River

You can only stretch a river so far, and The Colorado river which serves as a water source to seven states including parts of Mexico, has possibly reached its temporary breaking point.  The Colorado River is responsible for filling both Lake Mead and Lake Powell.  In response to the recently released report from the Bureau of Reclamation's anticipated 24 month study, the agency is looking to cut water realeased from Lake Powell's Glen Canyon Dam by a staggering 750,000 acre feet which averages out to serving approximately 1.5 million homes.  It is the first time in in the history of that dam that water heading downstream will be cut.  This shortage has raised concern for municipalities, agricultural communities as well as environmentalist groups concerned for the fish and wildlife habbitats that will be directly affected.

Currently, Las Vegas Nevada has 2 'straws' in Lake Mead, which is approximately 300 miles from Lake Powell, in order to provide enough water for the city's ever growing urban population.  At this time officials are already having to consider drawing from deeper in the reservoir to avoid price hikes and shortages on water for surrounding municipalities.  Brad Udall from the University of Colorado's Law School, explains how, "Something very, very unusual is going on." With the combination of a staggering drought and increased demands, an incredible 8.23 million acre feet of water is supposed to reach Lake Mead and Powell each year in order to serve Nevada, Arizona, California and Mexico.  "Basically, Mead has lost the equivalent of one entire year's worth of flow." Udall explained, "It's missing 8 million acre feet of water."  In addition to this frightening statistic, Lake Powell is also missing a years worth of water, an estimated 15 million acre feet.  So, while the drought rages on, many states in the west will spend the winter praying for heavy wet snow and rain to hopefully buffer this rather remarkable shortage.  Time to rapidly preform a dozen snow dances, no time to waste here folks. 

Photo: Compliments of National Geographic

Drought - Everyone Looking for Answers

Kate and I attended a drought workshop here in Colby last week that was hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) folks, and included the co-sponsors of the Kansas Water Office, NOAA Regional Climate Services and the National Drought Mitigation Center.  The Colby meeting is a clickable on the link just provided.

There were about 80 folks in attendance who I gathered were mostly there to get answers about drought responses that were available and effective.  It was a surprise to me when the NIDIS presentations were all geared to promote participant discussions about what might work to get everyone through this drought in as good a shape as possible.  They were there to get solutions from us while we were there to get solutions from them.  Seems everyone is seeking solutions to the current midwest drought that is quickly shaping up to be the new drought of record.

Don't get me wrong, the material provided was top-notch.  It characterized the drought to a "T" with data and analysis that was impressive.  In the end it was an excellent look into this drought with 20-20 hindsight.  I have to admit that the forward looking projections were not that good, but were delivered with the appropriate amount of "qualifications".  Seems that for our location (central US) there is always a slightly better or slightly worse chance of all the climate elements that spell wetter or drier or hotter or cooler conditions. 

The open discussion was better than most sessions of this type, though, and I'm glad I attended.  I now have a new, excellent location to get drought information. But for the future, I'm just going to hang around and see what develops - then peruse the NIDIS pages to see what happened.

Kansas Thinks Drought Will Continue

The state water planners, the Governor included, are thinking the 2011-2012 drought in Kansas is more likely to continue for another year as to end. As such, they are starting to notify water users of this possibility. I guess maybe "prepare water users" might be a more accurate way to phrase their activity.

The Governor has just released a letter to all public water suppliers in Kansas asking for drought plans to be developed if not already done, reviewed if already in place, and evaluated and updated in all cases. Here is his letter:

Dear Public Water Supplier,

The persistent drought in which we find ourselves is not expected to end in the near term. In the mean time, I have asked all Kansans to take steps to reduce water usage.

As a public water supplier, you can take some specific steps in the next couple weeks. If you have your own source of supply, whether ground or surface, make an assessment of the current quantity of water available. What is the depth to groundwater in your well and how does it compare to historic levels; what capacity remains in your lake? If you purchase water, check with your supplier to see if they have measured the supply.

Another step you can take is to review your conservation plan and drought response triggers and actions. Evaluate your experience from this past year. Plan to update those plans if needed to be prepared to address water supply needs should the drought continue as predicted. If you purchase treated water, contact your seller to coordinate conservation efforts with them. If you are a seller of treated water, contact those systems you sell to and ensure they have the ability to invoke conservation measures in their systems.

We have all seen news reports of large cities and small towns across the nation that have run out, or nearly run out of water due to lack of planning and monitoring. Let’s make sure that others look to Kansas and our public water suppliers as an example of how to deal with drought rather than what happens when you don’t prepare. 

If you need assistance with your drought plan update or evaluating your water supply, please contact the Kansas Water Office at 1-888-KAN-WATER (1-888-526-9283). I would like you to report to KWO by January 8, 2013 the results of your water supply evaluation.

Thank you for your timely attention to this matter as this will better prepare us all to deal with the continuing drought. We are all in this together and will work collectively to weather the challenges.

It is interesting to me that he is asking for a definitive action (a water supply evaluation) on behalf of every public water supplier in the state.  This has never happened before - at least not since early 1977 when I came to Kansas.  But he clearly stops short of making this exercise a directive.  Either way, it is probably sound advice.  I also have to wonder if and when a similar call for action will be requested of the irrigation folks of the state who use by far the most water. 

                                                                        

                                                                 

AG, NRCS, GMD4 and Water

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced last Friday a new pilot program administered by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) in Kansas and Colorado to remove sediments from ponds to help provide more water for livestock or for irrigation.  This effort will be part of the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP), and is largely in response to the on-going drought.  According to the press release it's to "..provide an additional conservation option for producers who face drought-related issues on their agricultural operations." 

The press release goes on to cover another water conservation program that was implemented from within the recently expired Farm Bill - that being The Ogallala Aquifer Initiative.  NRCS claims that through the Farm Program at least 860,000 acre feet of water was not withdrawn from the Ogallala due to all its conservation programs, representing 1.1% of the entire irrigation use over the same time frame.  Their calculations say that the 1.1% extension translates into $82 million of ag sales at today's value, and, saved the equivalent of 18 million gallons of diesel in energy savings.  They state that just over 25% of these numbers were attributed directly to the Ogallala Aquifer Initiative.

GMD 4 is proud to report that we were a significant recipient of Ogallala Aquifer Initiative funds in which we set aside and/or retired irrigation water use in our six designated High Priority Areas.  Of course, one of these six areas may soon become a formal Local Enhanced Management Area (LEMA) under new Kansas law which will continue the water savings on into the future.

I don't know about saving 860,000 acre feet of water through these programs, but they have been positive for sure.  Suffice it to say that the federal accounting for water savings can be quite different than how we'd account for a water savings.  We've managed to retire (save) just over 2,000 acre feet of real water between the federal AWEP (through NRCS) and the Kansas Water Transition Assistance Program.  This is measured, historical use of water independent of water right authorizations or any other numbers that can look quite impressive.  And they were in relatively small, hydrologic areas where the reductions in use are more likely to have a noticeable effect.

Anyway, nice to see the Department of Agriculture helping out in the drought areas through programs and assistance.

Dry, Dry, Dry...

Following is the latest weekly report from Walt Geiger of GMD 1.  He says, statistically, the drier conditions for western Kansas and much of the central Plains could easily last through October, 2013:

As anticipated, the drought has expanded in both area and intensity over the United States during the past two weeks.  Locally, we find that 100% of Kansas now resides in at least severe (D2) drought according to the latest Drought Monitor valid July 24.  Characteristics of a severe drought include likely losses to crop and pasture, common water shortages and some imposed water restrictions.  More striking is the percent of Kansas that now resides in at least extreme (D3) drought.  Two weeks ago, only 28% of the state was in the extreme category.  Now, we find 73% of Kansas in extreme which is characterized by major losses to crop and pasture with widespread water shortages and restrictions.  Extreme drought covers all of western Kansas and extends east through primarily the central portion of the state all the way to Kansas City.  Lastly, we now have the highest level of drought, exceptional (D4) drought, covering about 9% of Kansas.  Exceptional drought covers portions of Greeley, Wichita, Scott, Lane, Logan, Gove, Sheridan, Graham [GMD4 Counties; emphasis is mine], Trego, Ness, Finney, Haskell, Grant, Kearny and Hamilton counties.  Characteristics of exceptional drought include exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses, shortages of water in reservoirs, streams and wells creating water emergencies.  This time last year, exceptional drought covered about 11.5% of Kansas in the southwest, central and south-central portions of the state. 

In Colorado, we find that 74% of the state resides in at least extreme (D3) drought while exceptional (D4) drought covers 3% in portions of Lincoln, Crowley, Otaro, Bent and Kiowa counties. Concerning the contiguous U.S., dryness and/or drought now covers 80% of the country while at least moderate (D1) drought covers approximately 64% and extreme (D3) covering 21%.  States where exceptional (D4) drought covers the highest percentage of the state are Arkansas (34%), Georgia (23%), Indiana (19%), Kentucky (13%), and Kansas (9%).  Elsewhere, smaller pockets of exceptional drought are found in Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina.  According to USDA statistics valid July 22, over 90 percent of topsoil was short or very short of moisture in Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio with virtually all (99 percent) short or very short Missouri and Illinois.  The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) forecast for the period July 31 – August 8^th call for dry weather to dominate from the West Coast to Northern Rockies, and from the Central to Southern Plains.  Above-normal temperatures are expected for much of the country, especially the Rockies and Plains states.  Long-term, drought is expected to persist at current levels or intensify over nearly all of the central U.S., including western Kansas, through at least October 31 according to the latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook.  Unfortunately, there is little confidence of significant “drought busting” precipitation through the entire long-range forecasts that extend all the way out to October 2013.  Hopefully, the long-range forecast will change through time but right now there is simply an equal chance of below normal, near normal or above normal precipitation chances expected in the central U.S. through October of next year.

Texas Drought Has a Small Upside

There is no question that the drought in most of Texas is about as severe as it gets.  Starting even in 2009, the 2011 situation is claimed to be the driest since records have been kept (since 1895).  Moreover, it has also been compared to treering data from 1550 , and still ranks right up there.  Now, that's DRY!  As a result, water supplies have been stretched pretty far - especially surface water impoundments of all kinds.

A recent article in the New York Times by Manny Fernandez was an interesting read on some of the things that have been showing up as the lake levels plummet.  Included are:  a 1999 Chevrolet Monte Carlo with the deceased driver still buckled in (missing since July, 2008); a cryogenic tank from the 2003 reentry disaster of the space shuttle Columbia; an 1882 grave marker for a 1 year old infant; a skull from a very old indian male; and some 200 additional archeological sites of various descriptions.

I guess if there is any upside of severe drought, it may be the extra knowledge obtained from checking in on all the foreign and lost items that are in the bottoms of their lakes and rivers that shouldn't be there.  Let's hope the rains return and these hearty folks get back to normal as soon as possible.  The only thing we know for sure is that in another couple of hundred years they'll have another look-see opportunity.

Emergency Drought Permits in Kansas

Just a few weeks ago the Division of Water Resources announced the offering of an emergency drought term permit for water right owners looking at exceeding their annual water right amounts in order to complete the 2011 crop.  The drought in much of southern and central Kansas has been one for the ages to be sure.  The feeling was to shut off irrigation to stay within the limits of the water right and lose all or a substantial amount of the crop production would be a waste of the state's water resources invested in the production to date, so some mechanism needed to be provided to bring in this crop.

Basically the emergency permits require a water right owner to set aside his or her annual water right and be provided a two-year term permit (2011 and 2012) worth double the amount under the regular water right.  What ever is overpumped this year must be compensated for next year.  The need apparently was there because DWR has now eclipsed 800 term permits in the works - in literally 3-4 weeks time.  There is more to this program, but it clearly is a short-term, attempt to get through this devastatingly dry year.

More funadamentally, however, it could be argued that every water right owner knew on January 1, 2011 how much water he or she had for the year.  The safe decision would always be to plant only the acres and crop populations that could be completed ONLY with the irrigation water (assuming NO rainfall is received).  The problem with this mindset is that in the other 68 years out of 70 they underproduce because they fail to take production advantage of whatever rainfall is received.  When it all boils down, it's an economic and risk management system.  Seems like most producers have economic production goals and a risk tolerance well above the safest levels.  So we tend to operate for the bounty of the moderately dry, average and wet years and scramble for the fixes in the driest of the dry years.  Nothing more than human nature I suspect.  And in the end, the fixes do keep additional water from getting used, so it seems like reasonable business to me.

Drought and Kansas Water Rights - Part 2

Well, the decision has been made to offer drought relief to certain Kansas water right owners. Kansas Drought Policy - DWR  There are two options:  1) the Multi-year flex account (MFA - covered in part 1 of this issue (here)); or 2) a two-year term permit that basically lets the water right holder borrow against his or her next years water right for any over pumpage this year.

First of all, only water rights in agricultural drought disaster declaration areas are eligible.  These Counties are as of today are (in darkest rust color on map):

Barber, Barton, Butler, Clark, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove, Graham, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton, Harper, Harvey, Haskell, Hodgeman, Kearny, Kingman, Lane, Lincoln, Logan, Meade, Morton, Ness, Norton, Phillips, Reno, Rice, Russell, Sedgwick, Scott, Seward, Sheridan, Sherman, Stafford, Stanton, Stevens, Sumner, Thomas, Trego, Wallace and Wichita Counties.

Moreover, this is a one-time offer.  Users will agree to reduce next years authorized quantity by the same amount this year's use is exceeded.  Applicants must file on or before December 31, 2011.  And water rights in established Intensive Groundwater Use Control Areas or that have any enforcement sanction against them for 2011 are not eligible.  If interested, use the link above to see all the program details and to access any filing forms needed for either option.

We have producers in all stages of drought damages.  If you have not been able to keep up with the water needs of the crop and its already burnt up or beyond responding to water, the term permit option is not in your best interest. The longer term MFA may be, but take a careful look at it before you jump in.  If the additional irrigation water will save your current crop, then by all means you should consider one of these offerings.  Filing fees will be based on the total, 2-year term permit, but these are not excessive.

If you do use either program, make sure you understand the new terms and limits of your water right and carefully plan on staying within these limits.  There'll likely be more on this topic later.

Drought and Kansas Water Rights

In Kansas, a granted water right is a specific quantity of water per calendar year, for a specific use, at a maximum rate of diversion, to be used in or on a specific area.  You get the picture - it's a very specific right.  Not only that, but the applicant gets 5 years, and when requested, up to 10 years to perfect that maximum quantity.  The end result is a water right that should be sufficient in quantity to cover your highest water use needs.  This would include the driest years in an irrigation situation. 

Well, there's dry, and then there's DRY!  A group of Southwest Kansas irrigators are mounting a push to have the state suspend irrigation water right limits this year due to the exceptional drought conditions.  While this is actually a no-brainer for the economy, you can imagine what it's going to do to the aquifer reserves and the area's groundwater decline rate.  Clearly the dry-year reserve built into most existing water rights is getting pressured more this year than in the past 25 years.  So, the burning question is:  Should Kansas water right limits be suspended this year in SW Kansas?  Or, I guess we should actually be asking:  Should they be suspended in any year of drought that exceeds the driest year the water right was perfected under?

To make things more interesting, Kansas just amended its Multi-year Flex Account program to allow instantaneous enrollment.  The MFA program was originally set to allow any water right owner to convert a water right to a 5-year water right that more or less equals 90% of the 5-year total, then pump the new total in any year or years.  But all applications were up front, and the new converted water right began the following year.  The new program lets you convert immediately - meaning that the current year becomes your first year.  It was done specifically for cases like this.

While I sympathize with the dry SW (and we're dry, too), the MFA will allow them to legally overuse their rights this year, but will require that they make up that extra water use (plus 10%) in one or more of the following 4 years.  This arrangement will keep the crop production going while keeping groundwater withdrawals from getting any worse.  I'm certain there will be those who disagree with this opinion, but I'll not be influencing this state decision one way or the other.

Of course, if the extreme drought lasts another 4 years we'll be having this same discussion again at that time, and I'm likely to have a different outlook.  I'll try to remember to blog on this issue again after any decision is made.

How Can This Be?

Denver Water is seeking to more than double the size of Gross Reservoir in the mountains of southern Boulder County - expanding it from the current 41,811 acre-feet of surface water to 113,811 acre-feet. The reason for the expansion is given by Denver as: "..to hold enough additional water for 45,000 households annually and serve as protection against water shortages during droughts.."

How can you supply more water to 45,000 households AND at the same time protect against future drought shortages? This is just another example of trying to make something look way better than it really is - or like something it isn't.

I can see where the new storage will protect against droughts until the 45,000 new homes are built and start using water, but where is the drought protection then? To claim both benefits forever is just plain cheap. My guess? This is Denver wanting more water supply to continue growth, but wanting everyone to feel good about it. Economics once again rules water decisions.

The extremes of weather in Kansas

If Aguanomics can post a picture of a pretty lake in droughty California, I can post a picture of a desert in rain-filled NW Kansas!  This radical rainfall difference being experienced between parts of California and SE Texas and NW Kansas is indicative of the extreme variability of precipitation in the Western US.  But if the truth be known, it is actually more the norm - at least for NW Kansas. 

In 2002 Thomas County received an average of just 12.69 inches of annual rainfall.  One of the stations had a low of 9.72 inches for the entire year.  This year, we are to date at a County average of 27.49 inches - with 4 months yet to go.  In case you don't know, the long-term average is 18 inches for Colby - which is rarely ever received.  Feast or famine is our rainfall lot it seems.  All we can do is enjoy it while it lasts, because the drier times are somewhere out there.

All the extra rain does have it's disadvantages.  I just took my schnauzer to the vet for a swollen hind foot today.  Seems the cheatgrass is particularly bad this year with all the moisture, and she had some of it worked into her foot and it managed to get infected.  $63.00 this darned rain cost me.  I actually have no cheatgrass in my yard, but without having to water much at all this summer, I have been taking the dog for walks with all my spare time!   Actually, I'm loving every minute of it!